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It’s a massive day for Bitcoin, with the market breaking to new all-time highs above $65,000.
So, where is this bull market going?
Better still, how might the next bear market and bull market after that play out?
We’ll be discussing all of that in today’s newsletter. Plus, updates on ETH, ADA, DOT, UNI, and VET.
Let’s get it!
Bitcoin to New All-Time Highs Today, Now What?
Bitcoin is breaking to new all-time highs above $65,000 today. It’s a monumental moment for everyone involved in crypto.
But instead of talking about where I think this market is going this cycle, which I’ve done already, I thought I’d talk about the next five years.
A look at the 2.272 and 2.414 Fibonacci extensions from the last two cycles shows a target area that was reached both times.
If we apply that same area to the current rant, we get an end-of-cycle target for Bitcoin between $207,000 and $270,000.
We can also pay attention to the monthly RSI to time our exit from the current bull run.
Notice how BTC tends to end cycles when the monthly RSI reaches above 90. It’s also exhibited a double top pattern each cycle, which leads me to believe it happens again.
I’ll use this monthly RSI combined with net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) to help time my exit over the next few months. I’ll be sure to talk about NUPL in future newsletters.
Now let’s look at what the next bear market could look like if we get a BTCUSDT price between $207,000 and $270,000 this cycle.
We know that the last three bear markets have produced corrections of 94%, 87%, and 84% respectively.
Notice how each bear market has been less drastic than the last.
This is exactly what we’d expect from a maturing market. As I’ve said many times, a maturing market like Bitcoin is likely to see diminishing returns and bear market corrections.
As such, I’d expect the next bear market to pullback between 75% and 80% from the peak.
If we assume Bitcoin reaches $200,000+ this cycle and pulls back between 75% and 80% during the next bear market, it would put the next cycle low somewhere around $50,000.
And that makes perfect sense!
$50,000 is a psychology number, and it’s very near the $65,000 high that lasted for six months recently.
Using the same Fibonacci extensions as before and measuring from just above $200,000 to a low of $50,000, we get a cycle high in 2024 around the $1.3 million mark.
While that may sound unrealistic, it’s actually less than half of the gains from this bull market, assuming Bitcoin reaches $200,000+.
In summary, if BTC makes it to $207,000 – $270,000 this cycle, then I’m anticipating a bear market bottom between $50,000 and $60,000, followed by another bull market in 2024/2025 toward $1 million plus.
Today is a massive day for Bitcoin. The market is breaking out to new all-time highs above $65,000, which held as the previous all-time high for six months.
A daily close above $65,000 would confirm the breakout. At which point, BTC is in price discovery, meaning that $70,000, $80,000, etc. are all on the table.
As I mentioned in today’s video, I think a cycle peak between $207,000 and $270,000 is likely.
Of course, I’ll utilize monthly RSI, NUPL, and other means to fine-tune my target when the time comes.
It goes without saying that $64,800 is now support for Bitcoin.
ETH is also breaking out today above the $4,000 region. I’ve discussed the resistance area between $3,900 – $4,000 at length for the last few weeks.
A daily close above $4,000 flips that area to support. It also opens up Ethereum’s all-time high at $4,372, with a close above that triggering price discovery for ETH.
If Bitcoin can reach above $200,000 this cycle, then I think an ETHUSDT price between $15,000 and $20,000 seems likely.
Even at ETHBTC current levels, a $200,000 BTC would put ETH at $12,000, and the odds are high that ETHBTC rallies before the bull market ends.
ADA has been a slow mover lately. However, that’s to be expected considering Cardano enjoyed a big run-up back in August.
In the short-term, ADA is catching a bid just above $2. But buyers need to punch through $2.35 on a daily closing basis to expose the $2.70 region, followed by $3.
DOT has been a great market to trade lately. Back on October 12th, I told Cryptocademy members that placing bids above $24 wasn’t a bad idea.
The very next day DOTUSDT rallied over 25%.
Yesterday, I mentioned that I was bullish while DOT was above $39. I also stated that the market looked bullish the way it was holding up after its gains on the 12th.
Today, the market is back in rally mode toward $48, which is my target.
If DOTUSDT can close above $45, that area should flip to support for a run at the all-time highs near $48. Above that would be price discovery for DOT.
I love the look of the UNIUSDT chart. I mentioned it to Cryptocademy members a week ago, but buyers failed to clear the $27 resistance area on a daily closing basis.
That’s going to be key moving forward. A daily close above $27 exposes $31.50. Beyond that is $36 and $44.
It’s important to note that $36 is very close to the measured objective of the inverse head and shoulders that has formed recently.
But again, UNI needs to get above $27 on a daily closing basis to confirm the breakout.
VET looks ready to break higher any day now. It’s been flirting with the $0.123 resistance level for weeks now.
But that’s okay because as I’ve stated several times on Twitter, the longer VETUSDT coils, the bigger the breakout is likely to be. And as of today, this consolidation has lasted 187 days!
A daily close above $0.123 opens up the year-to-date trend line near $0.13, followed by $0.155.
If Bitcoin extend toward $200,000 this cycle, I fully expect VETUSDT to reach that coveted $1 mark, maybe higher.