I’ve long believed that this bull market would peak sometime in August or September of this year.
Many believe cryptos have already peaked and that this bull run is over.
There’s some data to back that up, but there’s even more information that points to the idea that this cycle isn’t over and could be longer than previous ones.
In today’s issue, I’ll discuss the case for lengthening crypto cycles. I’ll also share when cryptos could top out if this cycle is indeed longer than 2017, as some data suggests.
Are Crypto Cycles Getting Longer?
That depends on the perspective.
If you look at the time above the previous cycle peak, the answer is no, or at least it hasn’t occurred yet.
That was my go-to method for measuring this bull run.
However, if we look at the length of each cycle since the low, we get a very different perspective.
Market data from checkonchain.com.
It’s clear that since each cycle low for Bitcoin, the length of the bull run appears to be getting longer.
Epoch 1 was 325 days, epoch 2 was 742 days, and epoch 3 was 1,067 days. Epochs and cycles are synonymous, in case you’re wondering.
Cycle two was 417 days longer than cycle one, and cycle three was 325 days longer than cycle two, measuring from the low of each cycle or epoch.
Could that mean cycle four will be 300 to 400 days longer than cycle three?
It’s a possibility worth considering. If so, it would put the end of the current cycle between September and December 2022.
It also implies that what we see now is simply a mid-cycle correction or “cool off” phase, if you will.
There’s no denying that Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market got ahead of itself in April, so an extended correction here makes complete sense.
What if we measure from the last cycle peak instead of the low?
Well, we get something very similar. In fact, it’s even more elongated than the chart above.
Is the Crypto Bull Market Over?
I don’t think it is. We didn’t see a signature blow-off top from Bitcoin as we’ve seen in every other cycle.
Bitcoin’s performance since the cycle low relative to past epochs doesn’t support the claim that this bull market is over either. Measuring from each cycle peak produces similar data.
Even the performance since the halving doesn’t indicate the top is in when compared to past cycles.
If we extrapolate this data to follow the pattern, it puts the current cycle peak sometime in March or April of 2022.
Could this cycle be an anomaly?
Of course. But there’s too much data pointing to the idea that this bull run isn’t over.
Regardless of your biases, it’s essential to keep an open mind and practice proper risk management. Always maintain a healthy appreciation for views that don’t agree with your own.
One of the best ways to approach the cycle length debate is to maintain a longer time horizon. If you’re in Bitcoin or Ethereum for the next five to ten years, it doesn’t matter if the bull run is over or not.
A longer time horizon allows you to sidestep this debate and focus on adding to your positions when markets are trading at extreme discounts.
Total Crypto Market Cap (TOTAL)
The total crypto market cap is testing the $1.4T level as new support today.
I discussed this level at length when the market was trading below it. We’ll see if buyers can hang on to this area following Tuesday’s close above it.
If they can, all eyes will be on the top of the intraday channel near $1.5T. That’s close to the triangle resistance from May, which comes in around $1.57T.
We’ll call this a resistance area between $1.5T and $1.6T.
If the total mcap gives up the $1.4T support level on a daily closing basis, a run at the $1.3T intraday channel support seems likely.
Bitcoin hit resistance today at $36,000. That’s the descending trend line from the early May highs.
Today on Twitter, I pointed out how volume is decreasing during the relief rally.
Although it doesn’t have to mean this rally will fail, the decrease in volume could indicate a lack of conviction, as I explained in Tuesday’s newsletter.
However, as long as BTC stays above the 50% retracement of this rally near $32,400, I must respect the potential for a break above $36,000 and a run at the $40,000 region.
Only a move below $32,400 would indicate weakness and open the door to the critical $30,000 support level.
So far, ETH is holding above $2,100 support following Tuesday’s close above it. That’s a level I’ve had on my radar for weeks.
However, buyers still have work to do. As I mentioned yesterday, the $2,250 area served as support for several weeks in early June, which means it should act as resistance now.
Buyers will have to secure a daily close (8 pm EST) above $2,250 to expose $2,600.
Alternatively, if bulls lose the $2,000 – $2,100 area on a daily closing basis, it would open the door to the $1,700 region once again.
LINK is bouncing from critical channel support at $15. The level extends from the April to June lows of last year and connects with the December 23rd low.
Buyers tried to clear the $20 resistance area on Tuesday but failed. The descending trend line from May makes $20 a confluence of resistance.
A daily close (8 pm EST) above that $20 area would open up $25 and potentially $28.
However, there is also a much bigger ascending channel that extends from the April 2019 low and the June 2019 high.
If LINK were to close a day and especially a week below the smaller channel support near $16, that would open the door to much lower levels.
One scenario is even a retest of that 2019 channel support in the $8 to $10 region. But that’s only if we see the smaller 2020 channel support fail.
VET is holding steady between $0.0825 support and the $0.095 resistance area I discussed on Tuesday.
It’s going to take a daily close above $0.095 on strong volume to open the door to higher prices, including the $0.12 region.
Of course, the more significant resistance is between $0.15 and $0.16.
On the flip side, a daily close back below $0.0825 could pressure VET and open up the $0.06 area once more.
EGLD also tested resistance this week at $88. That’s the top of a short-term descending channel based on the late May highs.
A close above that level would expose the larger channel resistance near $118.
The first support for EGLD is around $75, followed by $70 and $58.
If we see another round of weakness from cryptos, the bottom of the larger channel comes in near $40, which intersects with several January highs.
Today’s Top Stories
All Major Bitcoin Mining Farms Just Shut Down in China’s Yunnan Province
Kevin Zhang, vice president of crypto mining company Foundry, claims that all major Bitcoin mining farms have been shut down in Yunnan, China’s most southwestern province. He cites an anonymous source.
650 US banks can soon offer bitcoin purchases
Enterprise payment giant NCR, on June 30 shook hands with digital asset manager NYDIG to open the gates for 650 US banks and credit unions to offer Bitcoin purchase options to their clients.
George Soros’s Family Office Starts Trading Bitcoin
Hedge fund titan George Soros has reportedly become the latest billionaire to join the Bitcoin gold rush.