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Issue 106 – What This Bitcoin Fractal Says About November

November 3, 2021


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Bitcoin has been consolidating for the most part since mid-October. So the price action has been less than exciting.

However, a certain fractal could give us some hints on what the rest of November might look like for BTC.

Interested?

In today’s issue, I’ll share how the 2017 Bitcoin fractal matches up with recent price action and what it tells us about the next few weeks and months.

Plus, I’ll provide updates on the DXY, ETH, UNI, VET, and KITTY!

Let’s get it!


Bitcoin to What in November?

Fractals are an interesting way of determining where a market is likely to move next.

While it may seem like some serious voodoo magic at first glance, fractals are nothing more than a play on psychology. It’s similar to how specific patterns like a head and shoulders play out similarly time after time.

However, like every method, they aren’t without faults. Nor is any fractal ever 100% accurate.

We should also assume that every market will eventually deviate from a fractal, regardless of how long it’s been accurate.

With that said, Bitcoin has followed its 2017 fractal since June to a T. You can see just how accurate it’s been from the chart below.

BTCUSD 2017 fractal overlay (daily time frame)

Will it deviate at some point?

Yes, eventually.

But until it does, I’m going to use it in combination with other techniques I discuss in these newsletters to determine what’s likely.

The 2017 Bitcoin fractal points to a move toward $80,000 this month, followed by a sharp pullback toward the $65,000 region.

That would make a lot of sense, considering how significant the $65,000 area has become.

And if we follow the fractal through December, it gives us a BTCUSD price of over $100,000. I’ve even shared other methods that point to a price between $207,000 and $270,000.

Now, there is a chance that these prices will take longer than December to materialize. I’ve discussed the idea that cycles are getting longer, so a cycle peak into February or even March shouldn’t be ruled out.

Either way, the 2017 Bitcoin fractal points to further gains in November. Time will tell if its hit rate will continue as it has since June.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

The DXY has remained range-bound all week. I think that’s one reason we’ve yet to see Bitcoin make any significant moves.

As I’ve mentioned in the past, BTC and DXY share an inverse correlation over the long term. So a weaker DXY is considered bullish for crypto.

For the DXY to weaken from here, it needs to close below the 93.50 support area. That’s a confluence of support as it’s the intersection of wedge support and a horizontal level.

Resistance for the USD index comes in at 94.60, followed by the top of the rising wedge near 95.50.

DXY (daily time frame)

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT)

Bitcoin attempted to break the $63,700 resistance level on Tuesday. However, buyers weren’t able to hold the price above it into the 8 pm EST close.

That left $63,700 intact as resistance, with key support near $60,000, which Bitcoin tested again today.

A daily close above $63,700 would open up the $67,000 all-time high. Anything above that puts BTCUSDT in price discovery.

As mentioned above, $60,000 is critical support; it has been for the last few weeks. Below that is $58,000 and $55,000.

But as I pointed out above, if Bitcoin continues following its 2017 fractal, we should see prices reach $80,000 or more later this month.

BTCUSDT (daily time frame)

Ethereum (ETHUSDT)

ETH is once again carving an all-time high today. It’s the second day in a row following the breakout above $4,400.

As long as ETHUSDT is above $4,400 on a daily closing basis, I’m bullish toward $5,000, $6,000, etc.

If we assume the last few months is a massive cup and handle pattern, the measured objective is between $6,000 and $6,500.

But as I’ve stated for a few weeks now, a cycle peak in January puts the price of ETH somewhere between $15,000 and $20,000, in my opinion.

ETHUSDT (daily time frame)

Uniswap (UNIUSDT)

I’ve talked about UNI a few times since mid-October. And each time, I’ve said the same thing: that UNIUSDT needs to get above the trend line from its all-time high.

As of writing, that level is just above $26. However, there’s also a horizontal level at $27.60 that UNI needs to clear on a daily closing basis to flip to support.

Above $27.60 is $36 and $44.

UNIUSDT (daily time frame)

VeChain (VETUSDT)

VET is consolidating nicely above the $0.123 support area. I’ve discussed this region at length on Twitter since mid-October.

As for resistance, VETUSDT needs to get above the $0.15 – $0.16 region to open up $0.19. Above that are the all-time highs near $0.28.

My guess is that we’ll continue to see some sideways consolidation here before the next leg up. That’s especially true if Bitcoin follows the 2017 fractal this month.

VETUSDT (daily time frame)

Kitty Inu (KITTY)

This last one is a meme token with a twist. Yes, Kitty Inu is a meme token for now, but the team has plans to transform it into a fully-functional utility token.

The Kitty Inu team is building a play-to-earn “Kitty Kart” game around the concept, similar to Mario Kart. They also have plans to include other DeFi utilities.

That utility alone makes it more than just a meme token.

The KITTY token is sitting at a $40 million market cap, so there’s plenty of upside potential when you compare it to other similar projects with market caps in the billions.

Of course, there are always risks, especially with a project as new as Kitty Inu. This is very much a high-risk, high-reward idea, so only invest money you can afford to lose. That goes for any investment, to be honest.

As for the chart, there isn’t a ton to report on since the project just launched 10 days ago.

That said, we can see that KITTY has carved the beginning of an ascending channel. It’s also challenging resistance from a few days ago. Break that, and I think this doubles in price relatively quickly.

I have a stake in KITTY, and I also believe this has 100x potential or more. But upside like that doesn’t come without risks, so don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose. As always, this is not financial advice.

The token is available on Uniswap. You can learn more about this project via the Kitty Inu website and Twitter account.

KITTYUSD (4-hour time frame)

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Justin T Bennett

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About the Author

I'm Justin Bennett, a currency trader turned crypto enthusiast.

My journey started with stocks in 2002. After limited success, I transitioned to currencies in 2007, which later became a full time trading gig.

The journey continued, and in 2020, I committed to learning about cryptocurrencies. It was love at first sight.

Cryptocademy.com is the culmination of my love for cryptocurrencies, my passion for financial markets, and desire to learn and teach.

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