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Issue 48 – $41,000 BTC Is More Significant Than You Think

July 28, 2021


Most of crypto Twitter is talking about the $40,000 area for Bitcoin. However, there’s more to that level than most realize.

Not only is it key resistance, but it’s also a level that could trigger a resumption of the bull market if broken.

I’ll discuss why $41,000 BTC is so significant in today’s issue and what a close above it could mean for the rest of the year. We’ll finish up with a few charts, including ETH, LTC, LINK, and VET.

Let’s start!


One Channel, Multiple Time Frames

If you’ve spent any time here, you know I like to view markets from multiple angles. It often provides a better view of what’s really going on.

Everyone is talking about the $40,000 horizontal level for Bitcoin. However, I haven’t seen anyone discussing it as the bottom of the March 2020 channel.

To illustrate this, let’s look at three different time frames.

First up is the daily.

BTCUSDT (daily time frame)

The March 2020 ascending channel broke down on June 21st. It was retested as new resistance in late June, but Bitcoin was unable to close back above it.

BTCUSDT is testing that level near $41,000 once again. The highs from Monday and Wednesday are both spot on.

Now, let’s look at the weekly chart.

BTCUSDT (weekly time frame)

The weekly is also testing the underside of that channel, so not much different from the daily chart.

However, the monthly chart is a lot more interesting.

BTCUSDT (monthly time frame)

Although Bitcoin broke below this channel in June, it appears it managed to close the month above channel support.

That means BTC is holding above the March 2020 channel on a monthly closing basis.

The implications of this are two-fold.

On the one hand, we’re approaching the July close. If BTC is holding above this level on the monthly chart, we should see it close this month above the $41,000 area.

The other reason it’s significant is that a false break to one side of a pattern often triggers an extended move in the opposite direction.

If this move below channel support is a false break, it could send Bitcoin much higher later this year.

But first, BTCUSDT needs to close back inside the channel at $41,000 to confirm the false break.

Alternatively, a rejection from $41,000, followed by lower lows below $29,000, would make it extremely difficult for Bitcoin to continue the bull market.

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT)

Bitcoin is still battling range resistance at $40,000. Given that $40,500 was the highest daily close since May 19th, it’s going to take a close above that to confirm the breakout.

That said, some wicks extend as high as $41,300.

The question now is, do we get a pullback before buyers can break that $40,000 area?

I tend to think we do, but this is where confirmation comes into play. Without a close below the hourly trend line support just above $39,000, the uptrend is intact.

Any pullback from BTC will likely garner a lot of attention from buyers between $34,000 and $35,000. So that’s where I’ll be interested in buying if it comes.

Alternatively, a daily close above $40,600 would open the door to the 200-day moving average near $44,000.

BTCUSDT (daily time frame)

Ethereum (ETHUSDT)

ETH has an hourly trend line of its own. The market is holding above that level so far and continues to pressure the $2,350 resistance area.

However, as I mentioned on Twitter a few hours ago, I think we get a pullback from BTC, ETH, etc., before the next leg higher.

That could reintroduce the $2,050 area for ETH, which has been key since June. That’s also where I’ll be looking to buy if ETHUSDT tests that region.

Alternatively, a daily close above $2,350 would open up $2,600, followed by $2,900.

ETHUSDT (daily time frame)

Litecoin (LTCUSDT)

Litecoin has a big test ahead at $144. The area served as support in May and June and later flipped to resistance in July.

It’s going to take a daily close above that to expose the mid-June highs near $180.

Alternatively, a rotation lower from cryptos could take LTC back to the $120 support area.

LTCUSDT (daily time frame)

Chainlink (LINKUSDT)

LINK has played out beautifully since closing back above $15 on July 21st. I mentioned my long trade here on Twitter last week.

A few days later, LINKUSDT closed back above that confluence of resistance at $17, which flipped it to support.

Today, LINK is once again testing $20 resistance. A daily close above that would expose the $25 – $28 region.

I like LINK higher as long as it’s above $17.50 on a daily closing basis.

LINKUSDT (daily time frame)

VeChain (VETUSDT)

I bought a lot of VET at $0.065 on the retest of the May trend line as new support.

I tweeted about this as it unfolded.

Since then, VET has closed above the $0.072 level and $0.082 yesterday.

The question now is, can VET hold above that $0.08 area?

If it can, buyers would need to secure a daily close above $0.095 to open up the $0.12 region.

Alternatively, a rotation lower from Bitcoin and gang would likely have VET retesting the $0.07 region as new support.

VETUSDT (daily time frame)

Recommended Platforms

Disclosure: The links below are affiliate links. Meaning, at no additional cost to you, I will earn a commission if you click through and sign up.

Bybit

This is where I do most of my crypto trading. Bybit has the best platform out there, in my opinion, and is constantly adding new features and assets to trade. (You’ll need to use a VPN if they aren’t available in your country)

Trading Tools & Resources

The links below are affiliate links. Meaning that at no additional cost to you, I will earn a commission if you click through and sign up.

Bybit - My preferred exchange for trading crypto. Over 100 tradable assets, super competitive spreads, and the best mobile trading platform I've ever used. Use the link below to get FREE lifetime access to Cryptocademy!

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Justin T Bennett

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About the Author

I'm Justin Bennett, a currency trader turned crypto enthusiast.

My journey started with stocks in 2002. After limited success, I transitioned to currencies in 2007, which later became a full time trading gig.

The journey continued, and in 2020, I committed to learning about cryptocurrencies. It was love at first sight.

Cryptocademy.com is the culmination of my love for cryptocurrencies, my passion for financial markets, and desire to learn and teach.

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  1. In my humble opinion, the fed meeting skipping in August should provide a relief for more rally as well as the dollar index is dipping further. Shorting could be disasterous at this stage

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